CME ScoreBoard Header

CCMC CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-05-06T18:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-06T18:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38729/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the northwest in SOHO LASCO C2, C3 and GOES CCOR1. Not seen in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap from 2025-05-06T19:23Z to 2025-05-07T01:53Z. The source is a large-scale filament eruption occurring near N45W20 best seen in GOES SUVI 284 and SDO AIA 304 which begins to lift off as early as 2025-05-06T14:45Z. The full filament liftoff can be seen leaving the disk starting at 2025-05-06T17:00Z. The CME features include a faster protruding nose ahead of the bulk of the CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-09T04:45Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 May 07 1231 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 50507
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 07 May 2025, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 07 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 155 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 08 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 158 / AP: 019 PREDICTIONS FOR 09 May 2025  10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 022

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was low but very frequent over the past 24 hours, with approximately 20 C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA Active Region 4079, Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration) produced all of the activity with the brightest flare being a C4 on 6 May at 17:07 UTC. For the next 24 hours M-class activity originating from SIDC Sunspot Group 469 is likely and there is a small chance for an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 6 May 18:00 UTC. It is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 469 (NOAA active region 4079). Although it is a relatively narrow CME, there is a chance to produce a glancing blow to the Earth's environment at the first half of 9 May.

Lead Time: 37.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-05-07T15:22Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy